On Wednesday (October 30th), during Asian trading hours, the US Dollar Index remained largely stable, currently hovering around 104.30. Spot gold was trading at around $2,780 per ounce. For the trading day, investors will focus on the US ADP employment data, known as the "little non-farm" report, as well as US GDP data, which are expected to trigger significant market movements.
At 20:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US October ADP employment change data will be released. This data, known as the "little non-farm" report, is anticipated to cause substantial market fluctuations.
A survey by authoritative media indicates that the US October ADP employment figure is expected to increase by 115,000. In comparison, the US September ADP employment figure increased by 143,000.
It is noteworthy that data released on Tuesday showed that the US September JOLTS job openings decreased from 7.86 million in the previous month to 7.44 million, reaching the lowest level in three and a half years, significantly below the expected 7.99 million, indicating a decline in labor demand.
Analysts point out that if the ADP employment data underperforms expectations, the US Dollar may be adversely affected, thereby driving gold prices higher.
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Spot gold closed up $32.30 on Tuesday, a 1.2% increase, at $2,774.35 per ounce. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, the gold price touched a record high of $2,782.17 per ounce.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Current market expectations suggest that the US third-quarter real GDP initial annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate is forecasted to be 3%.
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer noted that if the GDP data exceeds market expectations, the immediate reaction could be to boost the US Dollar and cause gold prices to decline. On the other hand, disappointing GDP data (between 1% and 2%) could harm the US Dollar.
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model indicates that the US economy grew by 3.3% in the third quarter of 2024.Additionally, at 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. NAR Seasonally Adjusted Existing Home Sales Index for September will be released, with an expected monthly increase of 1.1%.
Kshitij Consulting Services Team has written an article on the trends of major currency pairs, and here are the main points of the article:
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index tested 104.636 yesterday and then retreated. The index needs to maintain the momentum of breaking above 104.50 to test 105-105.50; otherwise, the overall outlook remains bearish, with potential declines towards 103-102.50. Attention should be paid to the U.S. ADP Employment and U.S. GDP data scheduled for release today.
Euro/U.S. Dollar
The Euro/U.S. Dollar has risen significantly from yesterday's low of 1.0768. Currently, the currency pair is rising within the recent range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09, which is likely to persist for some time.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen
Due to the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar, U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen tested 153.86 and 166, respectively. As we mentioned earlier, the possibility of a rebound to 154-155 and 168, respectively, cannot be completely ruled out, followed by a significant decline.USD/CNY
The USD/CNY once rose to 7.1424, approaching our initial target of 7.1436, before experiencing a pullback. We maintain our target unchanged, testing 7.1751 on the upside, and if it fails to sustain above the current level, it may test 7.10 or even lower.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD has been sliding, in line with our view. If the decline continues, it may test 0.65 in the short term.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD has been edging higher within the range of 1.2900-1.3150, a range that may persist for a while. Afterward, the currency pair needs to achieve a decisive breakout towards either end of the aforementioned range to further clarify the direction.
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