Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, even Charles Evans, the dovish Chicago Fed President, stated on Friday that progress on reducing inflation has thus far stagnated. Technology stocks once again took the lead in pressuring the broader market, with the S&P and Nasdaq experiencing their first six-day losing streak in a year and a half. The Nasdaq fell more than 2% in a single day for the first time since the end of January when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell significantly damaged expectations for a rate cut in March. The S&P recorded its worst weekly performance since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse risk impact in March last year.
After Netflix, the streaming giant, reported disappointing second-quarter revenue guidance and announced it would stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers, sparking concerns about slowing growth, its stock plummeted over 9% during trading, marking its worst daily drop in over two years. AI benchmark Nvidia plummeted by 10%, with its market value shedding over $200 billion in a single day, marking the second-largest single-day decline in U.S. stock market value in history, leading the decline among tech giants known as the "Seven Sisters". Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), an AI "demon stock" that had more than doubled since the beginning of the year, was heavily sold off after confirming it would release its financial report at the end of the month.
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Corporate earnings began to take over the responsibility of supporting the broader market. Driven by consumption growth from wealthy customers, credit card giant American Express reported a better-than-expected 31% increase in first-quarter profits, joining UnitedHealth, the healthcare giant that reported strong earnings on Tuesday, in bolstering the Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise over 200 points during trading. Earlier in the week, ASML, the European photolithography machine giant, saw a sharp reduction in orders beyond expectations, and TSMC downgraded growth expectations for the semiconductor industry beyond memory chips, repeatedly hitting chip stocks. Tesla's prospects for low-cost cars and autonomous taxi services were questioned by Wall Street, and under the pressure of a host of blue-chip tech stocks, the major indices nearly continued to collectively accumulate losses, with the Dow Jones narrowly reversing its weekly decline trend with a multi-day rebound.
Middle East risks eased somewhat during trading on Friday. After Israel's missile strike on Iranian targets during the Asian trading session, Iran showed restraint, stating that its nuclear facilities were undamaged, and the U.S. Secretary of State stated that the U.S. was not involved in the Israeli attack. Multiple reports indicated that the scope of Israel's attack was limited, causing minimal damage. Some comments suggested that both Iran and the West downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, with Iran hinting to the media that there were no plans to retaliate against Israel. Other comments believed that a public conflict between Iran and Israel could be avoided, but the market may still be tense, considering that Iran had launched an attack on Israel on a non-trading day last Saturday, and nothing is taken for granted.
The risk aversion sentiment stirred by Middle East conflicts "cooled down," with safe-haven assets retreating after a sharp rise: gold, which jumped over 1% during the Asian trading session, turned bearish several times afterward, failing to approach or even set a new historical high reached last Friday; the U.S. dollar, which had approached a five-month high during the Asian session, also turned bearish several times during the session, with the yen against the U.S. dollar returning to below 154, almost giving up all gains and approaching the lows since 1990; U.S. Treasury prices narrowed their losses, with the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yield plunging over 10 basis points during the Asian session for the first time in a week, falling below 4.50%, then rebounding to 4.60%, erasing most of the decline, and continuing to accumulate gains this week amid damaged expectations for interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin, which plummeted after the Israeli attack, rebounded accordingly, falling below $60,000 to its lowest level since the end of February during the Asian trading session, then rising to nearly $65,000 and gaining nearly $6,000 during the U.S. stock session. The fourth halving in Bitcoin's history is expected to arrive this weekend, with historical data showing that prices generally rise after the halving, while Deutsche Bank believes that the correlation between recent prices and stock indices has decreased, the market has partially priced in, and expects that the price will not surge this time, but will remain high in the future.
Among commodities, Middle East risks boosted international crude oil, which rose over 4% during the Asian trading session on Friday, then turned bearish several times, falling 5% from its daily high to its daily low, and finally closed with a modest gain, still accumulating a decline of nearly 3% for the week. This week, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory increased more than expected, and gasoline demand was disappointing again, hitting oil prices. Some comments suggested that after the Federal Reserve repeatedly dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, the prospect of higher interest rates lasting longer is causing investors to worry about the sustainability of economic growth, which is becoming a bearish factor for crude oil. The threat of direct conflict between Israel and Iran will continue to prevent further declines in oil prices, and the focus for the rest of the year will be on worries about demand growth. Other comments suggested that the risks for Middle East oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not increased; in fact, only Iran faces risks, and it will only affect Iranian oil production if the scope of hostile actions expands.
During the week when the British and American governments imposed sanctions on some Russian metals, industrial metals became the big winners, with London copper and tin setting new highs for three consecutive days since 2022, with tin nearly doubling in a week. London copper benefited from ongoing supply tensions, as LME inventory in the London Exchange decreased significantly and long positions emerged in the futures market, with investors wary of the risk of tin supply tightening. Despite turning bearish several times during Friday's trading, both precious metal gold and silver futures closed higher, with gold futures setting a new historical high for the third day this week, continuing to accumulate gains this week driven by geopolitical risks.
The Nasdaq fell more than 2% for four consecutive weeks, the Dow Jones posted two consecutive gains, Nvidia recorded its largest drop in four years, American Express surged after earnings, and Netflix's drop was the largest in two years.
The three major U.S. stock indices opened with mixed performances. The S&P 500, which opened lower, turned positive several times at the beginning of the session, then turned negative in the morning and maintained its downward trend, falling more than 1.1% at one point in the afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite, which opened lower, continued to decline, falling more than 2.4% at one point in the afternoon, marking the first time it has fallen more than 2% since January 31, the day Powell hinted at no rate cuts in the short term after the Fed meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened higher, maintained its upward trend throughout the day, rising more than 100 points at the beginning, more than 200 points in the morning, and most of the gains exceeded 200 points in the afternoon, rising nearly 330 points at its daily high.In the end, the S&P and the Nasdaq both fell for six consecutive trading days, marking the longest losing streak since October 2022. The S&P closed down 0.88% at 4,967.23 points, hitting a new closing low since February 13. The Nasdaq fell 2.05% to 15,282.01 points, recording the largest closing drop since January 31 and reaching a new closing low since that date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 211.02 points, up 0.56%, marking two consecutive days and the third day this week of gains, closing at 37,986.40 points, further distancing itself from the closing low it hit on Monday since January 18.
The small-cap index Russell 2000, which is value stock-heavy, gained 0.24%, recovering from a five-day losing streak that reached a low not seen since February 5. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.05%, dropping for three consecutive days to a low not seen since January 18. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed down 3.26%, falling for three consecutive days to a low not seen since February 21, with a weekly loss of about 7%.
Most major U.S. stock indices posted losses for the week. The S&P fell 3.05%, marking the largest weekly drop since March 2023, while the Russell 2000 fell 2.77%, both experiencing three consecutive weeks of losses. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, the largest weekly drop since November 4, 2022, with a cumulative drop of 6.98% over the last four weeks, marking the first four consecutive weeks of losses since December 30, 2022, and the largest four-week drop during that period. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.36%, also experiencing four consecutive weeks of losses. In contrast, the DJIA slightly rose by 0.01%, halting two consecutive weeks of losses.
Among the DJIA components, American Express (AXP), which reported good earnings, led the gains, closing up 6.2%. Coca-Cola, JPMorgan Chase, and Amgen all rose more than 2%. Chevron, the only energy stock, rose more than 1.5%. UnitedHealth (UNH), a healthcare giant that had been leading gains for the past three days, closed up 1.6%, with a weekly gain of 14.1% following the release of strong earnings reports. Amazon and Intel, which fell more than 2%, led the declines.
In the S&P 500 sectors, five closed lower on Friday, with the IT sector, which includes chip stocks like NVIDIA, falling nearly 3.1%, the communication services sector, where Meta resides, fell about 2%, and the non-essential consumer goods sector, where Amazon is located, fell 1.9%. The industrial and materials sectors fell by about 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Among the six sectors that closed higher, utilities rose nearly 1.5%, finance, where American Express is located, rose nearly 1.4%, energy rose more than 1.1%, and consumer staples rose nearly 1%. Real estate and healthcare rose by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Only the utilities sector, which rose nearly 1.9%, consumer staples, which rose more than 1.4%, and finance, which rose 0.8%, posted gains for the week. Healthcare was roughly flat compared to a week ago, while IT fell about 7.3%, non-essential consumer goods fell 4.5%, and communication services fell 3.2%.
The "Seven Sisters" of technology, including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook's parent Meta, all closed lower. Tesla, which had fluctuated between gains and losses in the early session, ended the day down more than 2%, closing down 1.9%, marking six consecutive days of losses and hitting a new closing low since January 25, 2023, on two occasions. After rebounding last week with a nearly 4% gain, Tesla fell about 14% for the week.
Among the FAANMG group of tech stocks, Netflix opened down about 7% and closed down about 9.1%, marking the largest closing drop since January 21, 2022, and falling for three consecutive days to a closing low not seen since February 13. Meta closed down 4.1%, retreating to a closing low not seen since February 21. Amazon closed down nearly 2.6%, falling for six consecutive days to a closing low not seen since March 18. Microsoft closed down nearly 1.3%, falling for three consecutive days, hitting a new low since January 31. Apple closed down 1.2%, falling for five consecutive days to a closing low not seen since April 26, 2023. Alphabet, which had risen for two consecutive days, closed down 1.1%, hitting a new low since Tuesday, which was the lowest since April 5.
All six of these tech stocks posted losses for the week, with Netflix down about 10.9%, Apple and Amazon both down more than 6%, Meta down about 6%, Microsoft down more than 5%, and Alphabet down more than 2%.
Overall, chip stocks accelerated their decline in the afternoon, underperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX both closed down about 4.1% and 4%, respectively, falling for three consecutive days to a closing low not seen since February 1, with weekly losses of 9.2% and 9%, respectively. Among chip stocks, NVIDIA, which rebounded on Thursday, opened lower and closed down 10.7%, ending the day down 10%, marking the largest daily drop since March 16, 2020. Its market value evaporated by about $21.2 billion in a single day, marking the second-largest single-day market value decline among U.S.-listed companies, following Meta's $23.2 billion loss on February 3, 2022. It hit a new closing low since February 21 and fell 13.6% for the week. TSMC, which closed down nearly 4% on Thursday, fell 4.2% in the morning and closed down 3.5%, falling 10.4% for the week following its earnings release. Arm closed down nearly 17%, AMD fell 5.4%, Micron Technology fell 4.6%, and Intel fell 2.4%.
AI concept stocks continued to decline, also underperforming the broader market. Following the announcement that it would release its third-quarter earnings on April 30 without providing guidance in advance, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which had risen more than 160% since the beginning of the year, closed down more than 23%. At the close, Astera Labs (ALAB), known as "Little NVIDIA" and selling data center interconnect chips, fell more than 9%. SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell more than 7%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 5%, Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 3%, Adobe (ADBE) fell 1.7%, Oracle (ORCL) fell nearly 1%, and C3.ai (AI), which initially turned positive and then negative in the afternoon, fell 0.7%.Popular Chinese concept stocks generally retreated. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which stopped a three-day losing streak on Thursday, closed down by about 1%, approaching the closing low set on Wednesday since February 13th, with a total decline of about 2.1% for the week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down by approximately 0.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Among the new forces in car manufacturing, by the close, Li Auto fell by 9.6%, NIO Inc. fell by 5%, XPeng Inc. fell by nearly 3.8%, and Xiaomi's pink sheet fell by over 3%. Among other individual stocks, by the close, Daqo New Energy and New Oriental fell by over 2%, TAL Education Group fell by nearly 2%, Ctrip, Bilibili, and Gaotu Education fell by over 1%, Baidu fell by nearly 0.6%, Pinduoduo fell by nearly 0.2%, while NetEase rose by over 1%, JD.com rose by 0.2%, Alibaba rose by nearly 0.3%, and Tencent's pink sheet rose by 0.1%.
Bank stock indices rose for three consecutive days. The overall banking industry indicator KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed up by 1.9%, reaching a high not seen since April 10th, with a total gain of about 2% for the week; the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up by 2.9%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed up by 2.6%, reaching a high not seen since April 9th, with total gains of nearly 2% and over 1.7% for the week, respectively.
Large banks普遍上涨 on Friday, with Bank of America closing up by nearly 3.4%, Wells Fargo up by 2.7%, JPMorgan Chase up by 2.5%, Citigroup up by 1.4%, Morgan Stanley up by 0.4%, and Goldman Sachs up by 0.2%.
Among the more volatile stocks, media reported that after discussions between Sony Pictures Entertainment and investment management company Apollo Global Management about the possibility of joining forces to acquire it, the media giant Paramount Global (PARA) closed up by 13.4%; the mobile technology company Ibotta (IBTA), which surged by over 17% on its first day, fell by 8.6% during trading and closed down by 5.1%.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European index, which had rebounded slightly for two consecutive days, fell back, with some corporate earnings reports being positive, curbing the decline of European stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed down by less than 0.1%, close to the closing low set on Tuesday since March 6th. The performance of major European country indices varied. The UK and Italian indices rose for three consecutive days, while the German and Spanish indices, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell back, and the French stock market, which had also risen for two consecutive days, closed roughly flat.
Among the sectors, technology closed down by about 1.8%, with ASML, the highest market value technology stock listed in the Netherlands, falling by 2.3%; automobiles fell by nearly 0.8%, weighed down by Volvo, which fell by 4.1% after being partially sold by its second-largest shareholder, Geely; while telecommunications rose by 1.1%, with Elisa, a Finnish company whose EBITDA profits rose by nearly 4% in the first quarter, leading the way with a 4.4% increase; the personal and household goods sector, where luxury goods giants are located, rose by 0.6%, benefiting from L'Oréal, the French beauty giant listed in France, which reported first-quarter sales that exceeded expectations, with sales growth in North America and Europe exceeding 12%, closing up by about 5%.
The Stoxx 600 index fell by 1.18% for the week, marking four consecutive weeks of decline, and once again falling by more than 1% in a week after the previous week, very close to the largest weekly decline since January 19th set by the previous week's fall. The performance of national indices varied, with the Dutch index, where ASML is located, leading the decline with a fall of over 2%, German and UK stocks fell by over 1%, marking three consecutive weeks of decline, while the French, Italian, and Spanish stocks, which had fallen for two consecutive weeks, posted a slight total gain.
Among the sectors, technology led the decline with a cumulative fall of 5.8%, with ASML falling by over 9.5% for the week after announcing first-quarter orders that were far below expectations; commodity-related sectors that performed well last week fell together, with oil and gas, which rose by nearly 4% last week, falling by over 3%, and basic resources, which rose by over 4% last week, falling by more than 1.5%, while personal and household goods rose by over 1.8%, and telecommunications turned positive for the week due to a rise on Friday, with a cumulative increase of 0.7%.
The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield plunged by more than 10 basis points during Asian trading hours, then recovered most of the decline. The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield once fell below 4.50% in the early Asian market, breaking below 4.50% for the first time since last Friday, April 12th, with a daily drop of about 14 basis points, then continued to rise, climbing back above 4.60% during European trading hours, and approached erasing all the decline during the early U.S. stock market session, still some distance from the high of 4.70% tested on Tuesday, which was the highest since November 13, 2023, and has been refreshed for two consecutive days. By the end of the bond market, it was about 4.62%, with a daily drop of about 1 basis point. The yield fell back after rebounding on Thursday, with a total rise of about 10 basis points for the week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase.The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, once broke below 4.88 in the early Asian market, also refreshing a one-week low, with a daily drop of about 11 basis points. The U.S. stock market once briefly turned up and tested 4.99%, continuing to approach the high of over 5.0% since November 14, 2023, broken on Tuesday. In the last four days, the market has tested or broken through 5.0%, and by the end of the bond market, it was about 4.99%, roughly flat with the same period on Thursday, with a cumulative increase of about 9 basis points this week, marking four consecutive weeks of increases.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the basket of exchange rates against six major currencies including the euro, once broke above 106.30 in the early Asian market, close to the high of 106.50 on Tuesday, which was refreshed for two consecutive days since November 1, 2023. It rose nearly 0.2% during the day, turned down before the European stock market, and only briefly turned up in the early European stock market. When the U.S. stock market refreshed the daily low, it broke below 105.90, with a daily drop of nearly 0.3%. By the noon session, it had wiped out most of the losses and turned up several times.
By the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index was above 106.10, roughly flat after rebounding on Thursday, with a cumulative increase of 0.1% for the week; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rates of the dollar against ten other currencies, rose by less than 0.1%, marking two consecutive increases after ending a five-day rise on Wednesday, and continued to approach the high since November 2023 on Tuesday. The index rose by 0.4% for the week, and both the U.S. Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have risen for two consecutive weeks, with the increase far less than the more than 1% increase last week.
Among non-U.S. currencies, the yen rose and fell on Friday. The dollar against the yen once approached 154.70 to 154.67 in the early Asian market, close to the high of 154.80 on Tuesday, which was the highest since 1990 for four consecutive days. After the news of Iran being attacked, it dived and once broke below 153.60, wiping out the gains for the week, with a daily drop of nearly 0.7%, and then continued to rebound, closing flat after wiping out all the losses by the close of the U.S. stock market; the euro against the dollar once fell below 1.0610 in the early Asian market, close to the low of 1.0600 after Powell's speech on Tuesday, which was the lowest since the end of October 2023, with a daily drop of 0.3%, and turned up before the European stock market opened; the pound against the dollar saw its losses expand after the U.S. stock market opened, and once broke below 1.2370 during the noon session,刷新ing the low since November 2023 on Tuesday, with a daily drop of more than 0.5%.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the dollar fell sharply in the early Asian market, refreshing the daily low to 7.2629, and then quickly rebounded, refreshing the daily high to 7.2457 in the Asian market, a rebound of 172 points from the daily high, approaching the high since April 10 since Wednesday, and then turned down several times. At 4:59 a.m. Beijing time on April 20, the offshore renminbi against the dollar was quoted at 7.2512 yuan, down 16 points from the New York close on Thursday, down for two consecutive days, but still up 161 points for the week, rebounding after a retreat last week, and up for the third week in the last four weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) once fell below $59,700 in the early Asian market, refreshing the low since the end of February, and then quickly returned above the $60,000 mark and continued to rebound. During the European stock market, it once broke through $64,000, rebounding by more than $5,800 from the daily low, a rise of nearly 10%. It fell below $65,000 during the U.S. stock market and was above $64,000 at the close of the U.S. stock market, hovering around $64,200, up about 1% in the last 24 hours, and down more than 4% in the last seven days.
Crude oil futures rose by more than 4% during the day and then turned down by more than 1%, barely closing higher but still down nearly 3% for the week. International crude oil futures rose in the early Asian market, with U.S. WTI crude oil approaching $86.30, up about 4.3% for the day, and Brent crude oil breaking through $90.70, up nearly 4.2% for the day, and then continued to fall. At the beginning of the European stock market, it turned down, and during the early European stock market, when U.S. oil fell below $81.80 and Brent oil broke below $86.20, both fell about 1.1% for the day, retreating about 5.2% and 5% from their daily highs, respectively, and then turned up during the U.S. stock market and briefly turned down again.
In the end, crude oil closed higher for the first time in five trading days. The May WTI crude oil futures closed up about 0.5%, at $83.14 a barrel,脱离ing the closing low since March 27 since Wednesday on Thursday; the Brent June crude oil futures, which had fallen for four consecutive days, closed up 0.20%, at $87.29 a barrel, temporarily leaving the closing low since March 27 on Thursday for two days.This week, U.S. crude oil fell by more than 2.9%, while Brent crude fell by approximately 3.5%, primarily due to a drop of over 3% on Wednesday following the release of U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data. Crude oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks, marking the eighth decline in the last 14 weeks and the sixteenth decline in the 28 weeks since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict. After a surge of over 10% in the first quarter, the second quarter has seen declines in two out of the three weeks so far.
London tin rose nearly 5%, gaining nearly 10% for the week, while London copper hit a two-year high. Gold futures rose over 1% during the session but fluctuated, still closing at a record high.
London base metal futures closed higher across the board on Friday, with gains of at least over 1%. London tin surged by more than 4.7%, leading for three consecutive days and setting new highs since June 2022 for three days in a row, along with London copper, lead, and nickel, which also rose for three days straight. London nickel rose by over 4%, closing above the $19,000 mark for the first time since September last year; London copper, which set a new two-year high for two consecutive days, closed above $9,800 for the first time since April 2022; London lead set a new high since November last year, following Monday's record. London aluminum rose by over 2%, marking six consecutive days of gains and setting a new high since June 2022. London zinc recouped Thursday's losses, reaching a high not seen since April last year.
For the week, these metals all accumulated gains, with London tin up nearly 10%, London copper up over 4%, and London zinc up nearly 0.9%, all rising for three consecutive weeks. London aluminum rose by about 7%, marking six weeks of gains, London lead rose by nearly 2%, marking four weeks of gains, and London nickel, which slightly fell last week, rose by over 8%.
New York gold futures refreshed the daily low to $2,386.8 in the Asian morning session, falling nearly 0.5% during the day. After the news of Israeli attacks, it jumped to above $2,430,刷新ing the daily high to $2,433.3, approaching the intraday historical high set last Friday, with a nearly 1.5% gain during the day. It then fluctuated between gains and losses during the Asian and European stock sessions and the early U.S. stock session, but managed to maintain its upward trend after turning positive again in the U.S. stock session, and recaptured $2,410 during the midday.
Ultimately, the COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.66%, at $2,413.8, marking two consecutive days of gains and setting a new closing high record, which was also the third day this week to close at a historical high. The week saw a total gain of 1.67%, marking four consecutive weeks of gains, and the twentieth week of gains in the 28 weeks since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, although the gain was significantly lower than the previous week ending April 5th, which saw a total gain of 4.78%.
Spot gold rose in the Asian morning session, approaching $2,418,刷新ing the intraday high since last Friday, April 12th, and approaching the intraday historical high of over $2,430 set last Friday. It gained 1.6% during the day, then continued to fall, fluctuating between gains and losses during the European stock session, and falling nearly 0.3% below $2,373 at the daily low, a nearly 1.9% drop from the daily high. Gains expanded again in the U.S. stock session, recapturing $2,390. At closing, spot gold was slightly below $2,390, with a daily gain of about 0.4%, still刷新ing the record high set on Tuesday.
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